2016 Euro Group D Free Pick : Italy vs Sweden

• 16 June 2016

Soccer across the pond has been exciting all day and night with the 2016 Euro Group D leading the way.  Italy vs Belgium would have been a good quarterfinal match but we got it right away to open group action.  Now one game through, Sweden has to make a move as they could only draw Ireland in their opening game.  The three way line sees Italy as a favorite  to win at -110.  Early 9am EST opening kick here so get your wagers in tonight for this June 17th match.

 

2016 Euro Group D : Free Pick

Word of caution for those hopping on the Italian bandwagon.  They have had big wins to open up tournaments and still fail to make it past the group stage.  It is the team default to go with both flair and solid defense.  An odd combination that makes them vulnerable against teams like Sweden.  Here, they will fall into the temptation to play extra special after exercising considerable restraint against Belgium.  They waited for counter attacking chances and did well there.  Problem with Italy is that their national team has rabbit ears when it comes to the home town.  Always tempted for that extra special game against a foe they consider beneath them.  The gulf between the two teams is not as deep as Italy perceives here.

Problem

The rub is that Sweden needs a win not a draw or loss here.  This forces them to play at a higher tempo than they might normally do against Italy.  Sweeden’s right defensive flank is the vulnerable aspect of their team.  Italy has options in placing El Shaarawy, Eder, or even Darmain to probe that weakness.  How you should best judge Sweden’s chances is to appraise Zlatan Ibrahimovic in big games?  He has spent most of his career in Italy so he knows their system well?  At his age, he should have the wisdom and experience for one last special game in the Euros.  This should be it.

Sweden to win in the three way line or with a spread is the options one should entertain in this game.  Italy gets real flaky playing tight to the vest against teams “below” them.  Penchant to self destruction in the quest to produce a masterpiece will bite them in the behind here.  Go with Sweden here to best suit the purposes of your bankroll.  Good fortune and we will see you on Friday here at HRWager.