One should not underestimate the effects of being the road team for college basketball handicapping! Tonight is a matchup on the West Coast that could have many people on auto click for their sports investment. However before you hit password confirm, take a step back and evaluate the situation. USC (19-8) at Stanford (13-12) has been pegged as only a -2 1/2 point road favorite on the Trojans. This was deemed insufficient as the sharps moved the line towards the home team to – 1 1/2 for USC. Let us see which way the winds of profit should blow into for this one.
Teams have struck at the Trojan interior defense as an exploit. Utah had Jakob Poeltl to pound the paint and almost score at will. Alas the Cardinal do not have the services of Reid Travis who is out with injury. Unless the role players on the front line and especially the center position have career games, Stanford will be hurting to score a lot of points this evening.
Effects of Desperation and Home Court
USC should expect a better defensive effort than usual from Stanford. A lot of it has to do with energy and with the Cardinal about to slide off the map for an NIT bid, the coaching staff will have their team energized. However, does saying you are going to do a thing stop a dual threat on the court? Jordan McLaughlin can not only score in his guard role but distribute the ball well. This type of dual threat is difficult to deal with by teams just willing the defense to play better.
Momentum of the Trjoans losing three of their last four is a great concern. At Arizona and against Utah are understandable. Especially the Utes with a weapon that exposes USC as a second round exit team in the NCAA’s at best. This team is 3-5 on the road and just 8-6 in the PAC 12. All that being put on the table sees the spread going the wrong way. USC should be the road favorite and by quite a bit more. Talent is there as well as their own worry of getting to 20 wins. Wager the Trojans – 1 1/2 bolster the bankroll tonight at 10 PM.
Scramble did Dana White and his management team did to provide us a main event for our UFC 196 preview. Dos Anjos broke his foot leaving a void with Conor McGregor having no opponent. A slew of opponents were considered with Nick Diaz getting the shot at taking down the aspiring Irishman. Good Morning and welcome to HRWager. Today we will look at some pre fight analysis as well as which way the line has moved since it came out. All of this for your sports investment speculation today from the HRW.
UFC 196 Preview : McGregor and Diaz Jaw
One of the ways to gauge the tone and tenor of the fighters approaching the bout is with the pre fight press conferences. Mostly for bluster, there are nuggets that can be gleaned from the tape. Here we have a clip from Fighthype.com which features five key minutes of the banter back and forth. Beyond the steroids accusation and then non answer from Diaz, Connor McGregor pontificates on the points of when and why Diaz will go down.
Sharps Take Heed
Soft body and lack of preparation in the fight will be Diaz’s undoing as he will not escape the first round. That and the comfort that Connor says he has at two higher weight classes are the points need to be judged. Linesmakers agree with this as the openers were near the -360 mark on the Irishman. This has had some interest from early money as Conor is currently an even more chalky -425 to win. However, the first round KO prediction is not met with the same enthusiasm. The under 2 1/2 is in the -185 range with far less vig on this total.
Per usual, if one is going to entertain chalk at -400 + then parlays are the usual course. It takes some of the sting out of upfront investment for those that are certain that Conor will cruise in this one. We still have over a week before UFC 196 on March 5th. Take heed and lock in the prices right now before the public comes on board and lessens the value for the main event.
HRWager’s basketball bonus not only gives you high expectation picks but to be on the forefront of the ” I told you so!” with your friends and co-workers. To be able to dial in on teams that surprise us in a pleasant way is a trait that is envied by many a sports fan. In the NBA, two teams are ready to make a jump up in level. This means that with this “surprise” that one can pocket a tidy profit to boot. So get ready to visit valueville with HRWager in the NBA this winter.
Down but Not Out
People thought that Portland would be down and out with free agent defections from their lineup. While it did take a month or so to forge an identity, this team is capable of playing good basketball when they are on. Witness their blowout win over Golden State as testimony to this. Now with the All-Star snub sticking in his craw, Lillard is elevating his game to new heights. This team is profitable both as a buy or fade if you can get the timing right. Linesmakers were slow on the uptake to embrace this team. Now after the Warriors destruction, the models are spiking higher than they should. While ML might be a marginal buy, it is the ATS fades that the handicapper should be focusing on with Portland.
Love the Jazz
Rudy Gobert was hard to replace but now he is back after missing the early part of the season. This franchise has rebounded well from Exum being lost for the entire season. Gordon has been rock steady and Rodney Hood has progressed very nicely. This is all about defensive effort. As long as this hungry team is in the playoff race, they will outwork almost anyone. Embrace right now and keep an eye for locker room quotes. At the first hint of quit then bail but until then the Jazz should be assumed an ATS buy unless concrete handicapping for a particular game indicates otherwise.
The West is where our money will be won in the next few weeks. Portland is over valued after shocking the world. They are over achieving and do not have the depth to sustain such a push. Utah has the energy and will to crush those not on their A game. Good fortune with these trends and we will see you tomorrow here at the HRW.