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2016 Euro Group D Free Pick : Italy vs Sweden

2016 Euro Group D Free Pick : Italy vs Sweden

2016 Euro Group D

Soccer across the pond has been exciting all day and night with the 2016 Euro Group D leading the way.  Italy vs Belgium would have been a good quarterfinal match but we got it right away to open group action.  Now one game through, Sweden has to make a move as they could only draw Ireland in their opening game.  The three way line sees Italy as a favorite  to win at -110.  Early 9am EST opening kick here so get your wagers in tonight for this June 17th match.

 

2016 Euro Group D : Free Pick

Word of caution for those hopping on the Italian bandwagon.  They have had big wins to open up tournaments and still fail to make it past the group stage.  It is the team default to go with both flair and solid defense.  An odd combination that makes them vulnerable against teams like Sweden.  Here, they will fall into the temptation to play extra special after exercising considerable restraint against Belgium.  They waited for counter attacking chances and did well there.  Problem with Italy is that their national team has rabbit ears when it comes to the home town.  Always tempted for that extra special game against a foe they consider beneath them.  The gulf between the two teams is not as deep as Italy perceives here.

Problem

The rub is that Sweden needs a win not a draw or loss here.  This forces them to play at a higher tempo than they might normally do against Italy.  Sweeden’s right defensive flank is the vulnerable aspect of their team.  Italy has options in placing El Shaarawy, Eder, or even Darmain to probe that weakness.  How you should best judge Sweden’s chances is to appraise Zlatan Ibrahimovic in big games?  He has spent most of his career in Italy so he knows their system well?  At his age, he should have the wisdom and experience for one last special game in the Euros.  This should be it.

Sweden to win in the three way line or with a spread is the options one should entertain in this game.  Italy gets real flaky playing tight to the vest against teams “below” them.  Penchant to self destruction in the quest to produce a masterpiece will bite them in the behind here.  Go with Sweden here to best suit the purposes of your bankroll.  Good fortune and we will see you on Friday here at HRWager.

MLB Tip : Tigers at Royals 6/16

MLB Tip : Tigers at Royals 6/16

 

MLB Tip

HRWager’s MLB Tip for the Tigers at the Royals today looks at when an ace stops being such.  Justin Verlander is taking the mound tonight and most would agree he no longer has his “A” stuff.  90 strikeouts would beg to differ but an ERA of 3.77 with a 6-5 record makes him an iffy proposition.  So how much credit is he getting in the matchup against Duffy this evening?  Detroit is a road favorite against a team that has won five in a row.  We will try to discern the sense in this and see where the profit points to in this 8:15PM start!’

MLB Tip :  End of Road for Infante?

A staple for the Tigers and at the end for the Royals, Omar Infante has been sent down. His puny OPS finally outweighed all the intangibles he could bring a team.  At 34, we might not see him again.  Little factor for this game but worth noting since this is the first game without him for KC.  This matchup features two pitchers that are red hot with only one on a team that is on a heater.  Detroit (33-32) sees a Verlander who in his last three has a paltry WHIP of 0.76.  Even armed with this number, his ERA for the same span is 3.00.  Big innings with a high RISP by the opposition is that timely hitting factor.  In essence, he is going at a high gear but can not produce anymore for the moments that truly count.

Red Hot Royals

Tigers up and down in their last eight while Kansas City (35-3) has won their last five.  Duffy’s K to BB ratio is sparkling at 25:3.  WHIP under 1.000 in  a three game span with a 2.45 ERA,.  Kansas City has had a very good stretch as of late when they score three runs or more.  With Duffy on the mound, they could get down to the two run level and still pull out the win over Detroit.  This is why opening Detroit as a -121 road favorite seemed so odd.  The market has corrected this slightly down to a -115 on the Tigers right now.

Total of eight runs has gone down to 7 1/2 in this one.  While this still has a good chance of coming in, we prefer not to hop on the train this late.  Instead go with the extra equity of KC +110.  Verlander will have to go deep in the count many times and is error prone in the biggest of situations now.  Take the Royals against the past his prime Verlander.  Good fortune and we will see you later today here at HRWager.