Online Sports Betting- Betting MLB Run Lines
The majority of the MLB betting handle covers moneyline and total line bets at online sportsbooks such as HRWager. However, there is a third option that can offer quite a bit of value in the betting odds in certain situations.
The MLB run line is baseball’s answer to betting the spread. Unlike football and basketball spreads that vary depending on the matchup, baseball’s spread is fixed at 1 ½ runs.
The favorite needs to win the game by two or more runs to cover. The underdog wins with a straight-up victory or a loss by one run.
The MLB run line also involves the use of adjusted moneyline odds. These betting lines reflect the 1 ½-run spread.
MLB Moneyline Odds:
Boston Red Sox +130
New York Yankees -120
Betting the standard moneyline in this matchup, you would have to risk $120 to win $100 betting New York as a home favorite. You can win $130 on a $100 bet that Boston pulls off the SU upset as a road underdog.
MLB Run Line Odds:
Boston Red Sox -150 (+1 ½)
New York Yankees +135 (-1 ½)
Shifting to the MLB run line for this game, you now have to risk $150 to win $100 to get Boston plus the one and one half runs. Betting $100 on New York minus one and one half runs would return $135.
There are any number of betting strategies tied to betting MLB run lines. From a pure value standpoint, favorites will normally offer a plus money return with the added spread. This can make them more attractive than the added risk in betting them SU.
One-run MLB games are more common than most bettors think. On an average, 30 percent of all games are decided by one run. This does increase the risk betting favorites. Outright upsets are also common. An average rate would around 35 percent.
Another factor betting home favorites is the ninth inning scenario. If they are winning heading into the final inning, the road team gets one more chance to take the lead. If they fail, the game is over reducing the home team’s chance to score runs by one inning. This equates to 12 percent less.
This leads some MLB bettors to take the underdog plus the 1 ½ runs at a higher risk. The home team only has to win by one run to win the game. This could factor in their strategy in the bottom of the ninth as well as in extra innings if the game is tied.
You will find betting tips touting the favorite at plus money as the best way to bet MLB run lines. You will also find betting articles that feel betting underdogs plus the runs at a higher risk is the best way to go.
Every bet placed on any game in any sport depends heavily on the matchup at hand. Stats and trends can actually get in the way of making the right call.
A hot favorite knocking in a bunch of runs per game becomes an instant target for a MLB run line bet. A scrappy underdog that has kept its recent games close win or lose might offer an opportunity for a solid run line wager.
Current playing form along with past results between teams are two good ways to access the value in the MLB run line odds.