First Inning Runs Free Pick : Mets at Nationals 7/20

First Inning Runs Free Pick : Mets at Nationals 7/20

First inning runs is the path to immediate profit in baseball wagering.  A simple yes or no to the question of will a run be scored in the first inning presents a bedrock of stability.  The starting pitchers are known.  Selective stats based on the first fifteen pitches can greatly illuminate this MLB moneymaker.  Today, HRWager has a strong lean on the game between the NY Mets and the Washington Nationals.  So let us see where the money lies on 7/20.

First Inning Runs : Heavy Ball

First Inning runs

 

Heat and humidity are a pitcher’s friend.  With a heavier ball, it is more resistant in regaining its shape once contact has been made with the bat.  The additional energy required takes away from the rest being transfered into the motion of the ball off of the bat.  Result is a projectile with less speed.  Fewer home runs are hit in this situation.  Washington is going to be a bog this evening with mid eighties in the temperature with high humidity.  A pitcher that is already on a roll can afford to go after a depleted line up.  This is where Harvey and the Mets come in.

Both Sides Insufficient to the Task

Harvey is the only one rested on the Mets as he was in the next city preparing for this start.  The rest of his tea was in St. Louis battling the Cardinals for eighteen innings.  Having had to travel cross country does not bode well for them. Finally with the Mets win loss record so bad on the road, a slow start is almost a certainty.  On the other side, the Nats got shut down by the Dodgers.  Most of their best hitters are out with injuries or battling nagging conditions.

This is the situation which has NO in the first inning for a run written all over it.  Parlay it with another wager or just consume the chalk and bet it straight.  Either way the NO on the Mets at the Nationals is your First Inning Run Wager of the Day.  Good fortune and we will see you tomorrow here at HRWager.

 

Sunday Sports Update at HRWager 7/19

Sunday Sports Update at HRWager 7/19

spring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reflection with our Sunday Sports Update can give the sports handicapper another vantage point that might escape his attention.  By considering and augmenting some of our stances, improvements can be made on the leaks that we all have.  This week had several instances where teams or even prices in the market have shattered our preconceptions.  So sit back with HRWager as we go forward with some of the key developments that are in the works in the world of sport.

Sunday Sports Update : Angels Price on 7/19

TIME BOS LAA
07/19 09:18 AM   +106   -116
07/19 09:14 AM   +109   -119
07/19 09:14 AM   +111   -121
07/19 09:10 AM   +114   -124
07/19 08:28 AM   +115   -125
07/19 08:09 AM   +120   -130
07/19 08:08 AM   +121   -131
07/19 08:00 AM   +122   -132
07/19 06:26 AM   +120   -130
07/19 12:21 AM   +122   -132
07/19 12:20 AM   +124   -134
07/18 10:46 PM   +130   -140
07/18 01:04 PM   +125   -135
     This is the market reaction to the Red Sox at the Angels tonight.  Two factors are in play for the decrease in the Boston price.  One is that a boat load of New England money has come in on the home team.  National broadcasted games do this.  The second is that a Boston rookie is on the bump.  Most of the time he has been on with two starts he got crushed out of the gate.  The play here is either the Boston ML or the Angels Runline.  Make your own determination on how Eduardo Rodriguez (Boston) will come out and wager accordingly.

Stars and Stripes Soccer

Whom ever thought the national soccer program for the United States men’s side could make so much progress?  They were being beaten by the likes of Iran just a decade or so ago.  Now they crushed Cuba 6-0 to reach the Gold Cup semifinals.  Double digits could have been reached if the dogs  were not called off.  This coupled with Costa Rica’s struggles in this tournament highlight that some of moves both up and down that the non powers of soccer could have.  CR faces Mexico today and could easily be a two goal win for the Mexican side.

Sunday Sports UpdateFinally, plan on some Monday morning British Open wagering.  This tournament has been delayed due to extreme wind on Saturday.  It got so potent that Brooks Koepka’s ball on the eleventh would not sit still on the green.  Hard to get a quality read on the green when no stationary point exists where you put.  Dustin Johnson is in the lead so far.  Will Jordan Spieth show more of that inner resolve and triumph over this scenario?  So sit back, enjoy the end of the weekend, and get in those Sunday Night Baseball picks.  Good fortune and we will see you tomorrow here at HRWager.

 

$100 Sportsbook Free Play Up For Grabs : Contest Ends 7/19 Noon EST

$100 Sportsbook Free Play Up For Grabs : Contest Ends 7/19 Noon EST

Free $100 Sportsbook Free Play up for grabs. A vital out for wagering on sports all year long is holding a contest at The Gambling Forum.  It is called HRWager Black Jack and the premise is simple yet strategic.  It costs nothing to enter provided that you are a loyal HRWager member.  The contest particulars are listed at TGF.  We will also list them here so gear up your baseball ability as the sport in question for this contest is Major League Baseball.

Sportsbook Free Play : Baseball Blackjack

Entires into the contest must be submitted by noon EST on 7/18.  The qualifier for this contest is that you must be an active HRWager member.  In terms of this contest, you have had to made a deposit after 5/19 of 2015.  That is it.  Signup for the forum at TGF is free so it costs you nothing to enter.  Now down to how I win this contest.

  • Each team that scores a run results in a point
  • You can only pick a specific team once.
  • Pick as few or as many as you like
  • Get the closest to 21 wins the contest.
  • Over twenty one busts out.
  • In case of a tie, the amount of hits the Yankess have on 7/18 will be the tiebreaker.

HRWager Rewards is +EV

Just one of the many facets of the experience that puts HRWager over the top in value.  We hold frequent contests at sites like The Gambling Forum to say thank you to our valued members.  The $100 free play comes with an 8x rollover.  You do not need a balance in your account, just have had to made a deposit by that aforementioned date.  So baseball sharps fro HRWager, here is your chance to bolster your bankroll in a risk free matter.  Join us here at the HRWager Blog and at TGF for more future announcements regarding HRWager rewards.

NHL Free Agency : Value Still Remains

NHL Free Agency : Value Still Remains

We cover NHL Free Agency here at HRWager because we have a loyal component of our fan base wagering on it with a daily frequency.  Both out head linesman and George the owner have to work very hard to remain competitive against some our hockey gurus.  Last year, we could stand pat in our knowledge that the Free Agent class for hockey was galvanized by the middle of July.  Not so this year as big names with even larger effects on the league have yet to settle into where they play for 2105.  So for both our sakes and yours, HRWager presents some of our impressions on whom is left, where they might go, and the effect it will have on betting the NHL next season.

NHL Free Agency : Key 2014 Numbers

What helped us is that those skaters that signed after the middle of the month in July were mostly fringe players.  To illustrate this point, not one of them got even thirty points last year.  Only two, Winnik and Stempniakgot to above twenty points.  Some of the others provided depth but that didnt pan out as a wagering factor until at least 1/3 of the season was over.  This year there are many more players who still can provide game changing ability and are up in the air.

All or Nothing Alexander

NHL Free Agency

Danger is in the air but the consensus that his struggles with the Hurricanes was that he resented playing on such a bad tea.  Being a malcontent has hurt him as teams have shied away from his asking price so far.  The ideal team for him is one that can tolerate his pretty boy hockey style.  He does not like being touched in the least.  Defense is an after thought.  Semin would have made a perfect Toronto Maple Leaf before their transition to Babcock.  Look for the Wings or a West team with money to spare near the top to take a flier on him for two years or so.  His signing in Detroit would cause us to upgrade the Wings for 2015.

There are defensive signings in Ehroff and Franson that could bolster the defensive ranks.  An Alberta team wold be willing to overspend to get the depth at that position.  What worries us are two players that are under the radar, are medium asking prices, and who can greatly affect who they go to.  Eric Fehr was invaluable to Washington.  He gives second line depth to those that were injury riddled last year. Brad Boyes is that chess piece that with a little production can be traded at the playoff deadline for more valuable considerations.  Plenty of room is still available in the NHL Free Agent market.  Mark where Semin goes.  If it is too a contender then upgrade him as he his the scoring punch that many need in this league.  Good fortune and enjoy your weekend here at HRWager.

MLB Wagering : Smoltz on the Mets

MLB Wagering : Smoltz on the Mets

One large contract and even those that deal in MLB wagering can be lead astray.  Max’s contract with the Nationals was widely believed to be the final piece in assembling the best starting staff in the majors.  Not so says a legend that would know so.  Someone slated to be inducted into the Hall of Fame sat down with a local New York paper to give his thoughts on the state of the game.  He makes a firm stand that their is a tea with just as much talent as the Braves had in their heyday.  Alas they do not reside in our nation’s capitol.

MLB Wagering

MLB Wagering : NL East Power House

With the vast resources that being in New York generates, let us hope that the Mets put to good use their ample bankroll to hold onto what they assembled.  Smoltz says that the young guns for New York’s other team is at least equal or could be better than him, Glavine, and Maddux.  That is quite a compliment to issue.  With Zack Wheeler due back from injury, the Mets have that same problem that caused them to contemplate a six man rotation.  Too many arms and not enough days.  It is tempting to put Colon out to pasture but the man gives you so many innings that a cheap insurance policy like him does not come around every day.  Let us look at the names and why we should embrace the Mets for the upcoming months.

Both are Snakebit on Offense

National and Mets fans have had to endure being ravaged on the offensive side of the plate.  They will need every inning to keep pace with each other as only two games separate the Mets from the NL East leading Nats.  Their names are not as house hold as Scherzer or Strasburg but they will be on the lips of everyone come playoff time.  DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, and Matz are bolstered by the older arms of Colon and Niese.  Many potent ways to shut down the opposition and cash in on the team total unders for their opposition.

This is the key for our wagering concerns.  The totals will of course be on the low side but after the number comes out, the team totals are tied to it.  There will be great value in the under on the opposition as linesmakers will not deviate this.  Take it from this soon to be Hall of Famer, the Mets will be gold on the team totals for the teams they shut down this summer.  Good fortune and we will talk again here at HRWager.

Baseball Futures : Arms Race for AL CY Young

Baseball Futures : Arms Race for AL CY Young

Boundless baseball futures are available for one to bet on here at HRWager.  A race of intrigue that has three candidates with good prices on them is the AL Cy Young future.  While there is no lack of quality arms in the American League, situations that the hurlers find themselves in can greatly reduce or eliminate all practical chances.  Let us look at some the favorites and others that are eliminated from contention but the linesmakers dont even know it.

Baseball Futures : All About Setting

baseball futures

The longer that the Houston Astro’s stay in the race, the more that Dallas Keuchel’s plowhorse mentality will pay off for him.  Right now here is the favorite at +125 over Chris Sale +150 because of the relevance of his team in the playoff hunt.  If they collapse in August then Sale’s superior numbers come into play.  Chris Sale of the White Sox has an AL leading WHIP, FIP, strikouts, and K’s/9.  These are the glory numbers that most gravitate between candidates on non playoff teams.  With Houston’s tendency to slump with their offense, Sale has better chances than Keuchel at their current prices.

Perpetual Candidates

Lets eliminate David Price at +700 right away.  Detroit will have a devil of a time squeaking into the playoffs and he needs his team to dominate and not just be in the race.  Sonny Gray of Oakland +400 has the stigma that all those pitching trades crushed Oakland.  They will not be in it this year and their staff will not get the benefit of the doubt from the writers anytime soon. Now we come to King Felix.  Another very good year but it is worse by far individually and team then what saw him earn a second place nod last year.  Do not wager on him either.

Chris Archer is a nice story from Tampa but he needs them to win to have people overlook his only so so stats.  In the end, as long as Houston does not cliff dive in the AL West then it is Keuchels to lose right now.  His price is good for a short term investment on this award.  Good fortune in wagering on the AL Cy Young Award future and we will talk again tomorrow here at HRWager.

SEC Football Wagering : A Season of Transition

SEC Football Wagering : A Season of Transition

SEC Football wagering really does denote a season in transition.  At the end of the annual Media Days, over 1,000 media members are given ballots to project the order of finish.  Usually this forms the bedrock of stability with the likes of Alabama penciled in.  This year saw some stark differences that are not only eye brow raising but demonstrate the great value in betting on SEC football this year.  Your hunch will have more punch with all the unpredictability for 2015.

SEC Football Wagering : Auburn and Alabama

SEC Football Wagering

The first curious case comes with the SEC West.  Here we have Auburn selected to win the conference with 96 first place votes.  However look at the degree of flux as the points that each team received flip flopped this.  Bama had 1,405 votes while Auburn got 1,362.  So Auburn would finish first more often than Bama but the Crimson Tide would almost always come in second.  However when Bama was chosen first, the strength of the Tigers came into question more.  Polarizing thoughts on Auburn this year.

Lonely Vandy

Only one team did not receive any votes to win the division.  Vanderbilt has that dubious honor.  Even a slumping Kentucky got the benefit of the doubt from a voter.  These two teams make up the bottom of the SEC East.  The gap at the top is more pronounced with Georgia having an immense lead over second place Tennessee     Missouri follows close behind.  The Spurrier teams of present and past languish behind the top three but are still above Kentucky and Vandy.

Finally, this last point of fluctuation comes into play.  The media in all their collective wisdom  have gotten it right only five years since 1992.  With the Tigers projected to win the SEC Championship while having Bama win the SEC West is an impossibility.  The one thing we suspect is that this level of unpredictability will work for the savvy handicapper in terms of better prices on futures and upsets.  Good fortune and get your groove on the SEC for 2015.

College Football News 7/15 : OSU Trolls and the Swoosh

College Football News 7/15 : OSU Trolls and the Swoosh

College Football News and Rumors takes a peek at the lack of respect that the SEC is being given.  Oh it has not reach the level of the handicapper or even wagering so far.  To say that Ohio State with their glut of quality quarterbacks should be not the favorite for 2015 reeks of SEC bias.  Even they can recognize the value in other conferences.  However, shots were fired by the Big Ten whom are feeling their oats these days.  HRWager takes a look at two keys in college football.  Let us look at money and swagger in this edition of HRWager’s College Football News.

College Football News : Invasion of Alabama

Media Day in the SEC is not just a regional but a national event.  Alabama has a quintessential cast of characters that make annual appearances.  Heck, they have almost as many Bear Bryant impersonators as Vegas does Elvis’.  But today a different type of wind blew into Hoover, Alabama.  Mongoloids by the name of Moorer and Rivers are Buckeye diehards that came down from Ohio State country to chirp a little.  Arriving near 6AM, they were not subtle and settled into the front row.  With the last two national championships being outsourced, maybe the SEC might have a few rivals that are not teams in their own conference.

NCAA Football News

Nike, Michigan, and Little Baby Swoosh

A marriage made in heaven made Michigan the recipient of the largest sports apparel contract.  $169 million will the Wolverines net with $80 in apparel and close to $77M in cash.This dwarfs the next largest school which is Texas by almost double in value.  Not only that but look at the recent deal with the Gators of Florida.  The SEC school got less than half as well.  Pedigree and promise get the value up to this level so that we will all see GO Blue from not until the end of time.

So with money and confidence come bragging rights.  All they have to do is now produce on the field.  Better non-con records in football is a must.  Look for the changes to take place and prepare to tail the Titans of this conference for 2015.  Good fortune and we will talk again tomorrow here at TGF.

CFL Free Pick : Hamilton at Montreal 7/16

CFL Free Pick : Hamilton at Montreal 7/16

HRWager’s CFL Free Pick for looks at Hamilton (1-1) at Montreal (1-2).  A short work week and cross country travel put the Alouettes behind the eight ball for this one.  Hamilton got their by in Week Three and roll into Molson Stadium as an ATS beast.  What makes us think that they could continue this trend?  Read on with HRW as we break down this Thursday Night CFL game.

CFL Free Pick : Cato Exposed

Against an average team, the quarterback of Montreal derailed his team from getting a valuable road win.  A frantic struggle got them the cover but not the ML cover 25-23.  Cato threw two picks that absolutely killed any momentum they have.  Now this tired team gets the short day and travel back three time zones.  While it is true that they get a field go as a home dog, Montreal does not have the ground game necessary to deflect heat.  Look for a long day as the passing attack will continue to go through growing pains.

Heyday on Hamilton

CFL free Pick

  • 7-0 ATS
  • 16-5 ATS in the last twenty one games.

Not enough respect but is making them a road favorite warranted here.  They will have to have the ball possession passing attack hit over seventy percent again.  Why?  Because this team is even worse at rushing than Montreal.  Putrid numbers will ensure that more than average amount of plays will be ran in this one.

The total is 53.  This proposition could go either way and should be avoided.  They could score a point a minute or be bogged down in mid field all day long.  Instead, trust Hamilton’s pedigree and the short work week.  A second half surge will put Hamilton over the edge in this one.  The HRWager Free Pick of the Day has the Tiger Cats -3.  Good fortune in this and we will see you next time here at HRW.