MLB Free Pick : Baltimore at Boston 4/11

MLB Free Pick 4/11


HRWager’s MLB Free Pick revolves around the price in the Baltimore at Boston game.  April 11th sees one of those near -200 ML in the first week.  How can Baltimore (5-0) do anything more this year and still end up on the wrong end of the stick here?  We will examine if David Price is all that in the HRW Free Pick to Pounce on for Monday?


MLB Free Pick : High Price on David

Home opener for the team that wants to forget last season.  Boston decided to part with huge bank in getting David Price, closer Kimbrel, and some others to the cast.  Another factor in the extreme optimism equation of -200 ML here is David Price.  His start got pushed back and when he gets a certain level of rest, he is even better.

13-5 with 3.19 ERA with six or more days rest

Hanley Ramirez is pounding the ball well at the start.  10 for 22 is fueling a Red Sox offense that posted six runs each of their first four games before the Jays finally shut them down a little on Sunday.

Baltimore Underdog Value?

First off, Baltimore does not find the friendly confines of Fenway to be so welcoming.  The O’s have lost four in a row up in Beantown.  Adam Jones might still be out for them with a rib cage injury.  Their starter, Yovani Gallarado, won in his first start but had a weak spring.  The one bright spot for him is that in his last three against the Red Sox is that he has gone at least five innings.  So let us look at the 2PM weather for the last barometer on which way to invest here.

Mid 50’s in April is clement weather in Boston.  The concern is that in cold weather, David Price has big problems grasping the ball properly.  This is the lower range of where he is his normal effective self.  While Boston is a favorite, the -200ML should be shunned.  Instead pound the RL – 1 1/2 on Boston.  Good fortune and we will see you on Tuesday here at the HRW.


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