Our Sunday Night Baseball Free Pick revolves around the potential of Jake Arrieta battening down the hatches against the Pirates. The league’s first twenty game winner this year has been good against the league but lights out against Pittsburgh. This is reflective on the ML as it comes in at a -190 range. With this as a Cy Young Award audition, how will Jake respond tonight for the Cubs?
Plenty of Fuel in the Tank
While some pitchers have bodies resembling a pudgy middle age father, Jake Arrieta has a fitness regime that will prove that he has plenty left in the tank nearing the end of the season. TRX and pilates gives him the strength and flexibility to ability to deal like he does all year long. With focus on his lats, he attributes his limberness to the second half success he is enjoying. The only real limitation you will see in this one compared to the upcoming playoff matchup is the amount of pitches. Unless a no hitter is in play, he will not go the distance. Look for an ideal number to be near ninety. So whatever price you think is fair for this game must be downgraded some because of his more limited amount of innings in this one.
This actually means a lot more for the Pirates tonight as they are in striking distance of the Cardinals. Make no mistake about the pace of play tonight. It should push the edge of the rules as the Pirates will be very deliberate against Jake. Besides wanting to get him deep in counts, look for them to make life difficult with being very aggressive on the base paths. AJ Burnett is on the mound for the Pirates and he has been very sly this year. His over 1.35 WHIP has not damaged his ERA of 3.15 much. With the defense showing up for him on a regular basis, the ML is a little too high on the Cubs this evening.
It is laughable to consider the over seven runs in this one but this is exactly what we are doing. The Pirates do not want to go down meekly against the Cubs. With his limited innings, this has all the signs of an over. AJ will not be able to work out of his jams as much against the Cubs as he does others. The HRWager Free Pick of the Day is the over seven runs in this Sunday Night Baseball key game. Good fortune and we will talk to you tomorrow here at HRWager.