HRWager’s MLB Tip for the Tigers at the Royals today looks at when an ace stops being such. Justin Verlander is taking the mound tonight and most would agree he no longer has his “A” stuff. 90 strikeouts would beg to differ but an ERA of 3.77 with a 6-5 record makes him an iffy proposition. So how much credit is he getting in the matchup against Duffy this evening? Detroit is a road favorite against a team that has won five in a row. We will try to discern the sense in this and see where the profit points to in this 8:15PM start!’
MLB Tip : End of Road for Infante?
A staple for the Tigers and at the end for the Royals, Omar Infante has been sent down. His puny OPS finally outweighed all the intangibles he could bring a team. At 34, we might not see him again. Little factor for this game but worth noting since this is the first game without him for KC. This matchup features two pitchers that are red hot with only one on a team that is on a heater. Detroit (33-32) sees a Verlander who in his last three has a paltry WHIP of 0.76. Even armed with this number, his ERA for the same span is 3.00. Big innings with a high RISP by the opposition is that timely hitting factor. In essence, he is going at a high gear but can not produce anymore for the moments that truly count.
Red Hot Royals
Tigers up and down in their last eight while Kansas City (35-3) has won their last five. Duffy’s K to BB ratio is sparkling at 25:3. WHIP under 1.000 in a three game span with a 2.45 ERA,. Kansas City has had a very good stretch as of late when they score three runs or more. With Duffy on the mound, they could get down to the two run level and still pull out the win over Detroit. This is why opening Detroit as a -121 road favorite seemed so odd. The market has corrected this slightly down to a -115 on the Tigers right now.
Total of eight runs has gone down to 7 1/2 in this one. While this still has a good chance of coming in, we prefer not to hop on the train this late. Instead go with the extra equity of KC +110. Verlander will have to go deep in the count many times and is error prone in the biggest of situations now. Take the Royals against the past his prime Verlander. Good fortune and we will see you later today here at HRWager.