NFL Free Pick : Kansas City at New England

• 15 January 2016

HRWager examines the question of just how impressive or not was the KC Wild Card win over Houston.  Using that as perspective, we attempt to examine if they can get within five points of New England.  Perhaps even a ML underdog road upset this Saturday? So let us see the state of protection for Brady and other pertinent items in this edition of the HRW Free Pick of the Week.

NFL Free Pick : Spot

How much can the Chiefs make Tom Brady into a mobile quarterback?  He still has arm strength unlike Peyton but it is very dependent on the position of his feet.  He needs balance and a small plot of acreage behind the offensive line to be effective deep.  Blitzes will only spur him to those quick hitting short passes.  Instead the defensive line needs to stint and pinch the ends of the line together.  Squeeze and make his drops go deeper.  This is outside of his comfort zone.  If KC can do this against an underperfroming O line of NE then they can throw one more in coverage short.  This has the similar effect to what Peyton faces from defenses these days.

Alex Smith Arrives

More than a game manager, Alex finally has the confidence in the system so the self destructive interception will not appear.  KC’s run game is above average.  Andy Reid’s offensive staff came up with a good plan on eliminating JJ Watt last week.  While there is no one on the Patriots that has this level of danger, the plan for the Chiefs will be good at exploiting the middle of the field.  Look for long drives with an oddly comfortable Alex Smith.

 

KC +5 in the first game is the payoff to roll on into the other three games.  Close game because the Chiefs will not give Brady much to generate easy offense.  Wear him down in oddly clement weather.  Mid 30’s means that this selection has a high level of stability.  Good luck with the Cheifs +5 and we will see you tomorrow here at the HRW.