NFL Free Pick : Lions at Chargers

Our NFL Free Pick takes full advantage of a full slate of football on Sunday.  San Diego hosts a Detroit Lions team that is in denial about their defensive problems.  Suh did a lot of functions that did not show in the stat line.  How will the Chargers take advantage of the Lions first game out without him?  A two and a half point spread for the home team is all that separates San Diego and the Lions for our wagering purposes!

NFL Free Pick : Cohesion

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When plugging player x for team mate Y, the calculations are often just of the brute strength variety.  Psychology is the key component that most miss.  Suh groomed this defense and his energy/persona fueled them.  Sure they might have gotten a Ravens player that is close in stats but not presence.  Even if they could equal this part, the chemistry is at least two months of real playing time away.  So when the idea comes across the screen that San Diego can and will run well against them, the benefit of the doubt should go with the Chargers since their O line is more established and has the advantage right now over the D-Line of Detroit.

Over Pursuit

When compensating, teams often over pursuit.  Even the Lions stellar defense last year was very vulnerable to passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage.  This has not escaped notice and look for Rivers to soften Detroit up this way.  When the packages are unveiled, Detroit opts for a ton of nickel coverage.  This goes right into the teeth of the excellent three reciever sets of the Chargers.  The difference here is that San Diego will have a little more time than the Detroit safeties are used to.  Exploitation is expected here.

Yes, Detroit will get their pitch and catch Calvin yardage.  San Diego will consume more clock and yards which yield further points.  The HRWager Free Pick of the Day are the Chargers minus the 2 1/2 points.  Good fortune today and we will see you tomorrow here at HRWager.

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