NFL Free Pick Thursday has Den @ KC

• 17 September 2015

People and pundits regret when the times of penciling it in are over.  We all have those little secret situations in which we can go to the well at will and draw out profit.  Tonight, one of these scenarios has dried up.  No longer can we count on Peyton to deliver us the profit.  Follow HRWager’s reasoning as we present to you our Free Pick for Thursday Night Football.

Home and Away

• 11-1 overall with a 5-1 record at Arrowhead.

Let that sink in.  This is the Denver Bronco’s record against KC after they pried Peyton away from Indy.  The startling facet of this factoid is that the Chiefs did not have weak teams during the course of this run.  Mannning just had to many factors for KC to equate a plan for victory.  Well all this is at an end as is Peyton throwing tds in regular season games.  He has gone three out of his last five without getting into the endzone via the air.  If this is not bad enough, another factor has come into play.

Tunnel Vision

One factor snowballed into another during Week One that illustrates the end is near.  Three offensive lineman for the Broncos were substandard in their performances according to their metrics.  This lead to Peyton not only being sacked four times but focusing on a pair of wide receivers.  He threw over seventy percent of his completions to him  His inability or time to go to other options made the Broncos offense solvable.

While the Broncos defense showed up large against the Ravens, they are facing a Chiefs team embracing the new reality of the league.  This is coming back to being a run first NFL.  It wont be blatantly obvious yet but possession allows one several luxuries that the point a minute attempts miss out on.  With the Chiefs finally solving Manning, it is now surprise that they are our selection.  The spread has gone from +1 to -3 on them and still has lots of room.  When getting out from under the millstone, teams go wild.  Look for the Chiefs to be double digit winners and cover easily here.  Good fortune ad we will talk to you tomorrow here at HRWager’s Blog.