Orioles-Dodgers 4th July Free Pick

• 04 July 2016

4th of July Free Pick has the Orioles-Dodgers bringing an interesting dynamic to holiday baseball.  Happy Holidays from all of us here at HRWager. Today sees Baltimore travel to the west coast with their big bats.  They get to face one of the young arms of the Dodgers that could be the future of their team.  Julio Urias will take the mound to see if he can contain the offensive potential of the Orioles.  Dodgers opened as a -150 ML.  We will examine where the line has gone and what is now the optimal path to profit for this 9PM EST start on the 4th of July!

Orioles-Dodgers : Baltimore Swoon

Baltimore has not had a good western road swing.  Seattle saw them swat them down from their perch a little with a four game sweep of the O’s.  What has been going well for them are the big bats.  Trumbo, Davis, and Machado are the most feared threesome so far in the summer of 2016.  What is the make or break point for them is their starting pitching.  Their top two starters are not strong enough to shut the door.  Going down the depth chart it gets even worse.  Let us look at how Gallardo has been doing in his last three starts for a barometer in this one.

Starters Momentum Coming in

Gallardo has needed the offense to prevail in his last three starts.  WHIP of 1.47 has only yielded a 4.41 ERA.  To compound this, his walk rate of nine free passes in his last three starts is inexcusable.  Even in the face of all this, he is 2-0 in that stretch.  Urias for the Dodgers has been slinging it so much better.  He is using his 20K’s to escape from multiple jams.  ERA of 2.25 with a WHIP of 1.31 demonstrates his tight rope walking ability.  It will all come down to whether the Orioles bats can connect enough to counter the leaks that Gallardo lets in.

Dodgers are a MASH unit right now with injuries.  The ML has moved to -170 on this one for the Dodgers.  Have to remember that Urias is on a strict inning and pitch diet.  LAD will have to use the bullpen early in this one.  Total is at 8 and has been steady.  Orioles being in LA on a holiday having to play at night will lead to many distractions.  Baltimore also losses a batter because of playing at a NL park.  Line movement is correct but the -170 ML too chalky on its own.  Combine Dodgers ML in a parlay for peak performance this 4th of July.