UFC 196 Free Picks : Champs Take to the Ring

• 05 March 2016

HRWager’s UFC 196 Free Picks are here as the champs prepare to take to the ring tonight.  Holly Holm wants to flex her muscles first by going after Miesha Tate before any Rousey rematch happens.  On the men’s side, Conor McGregor sure knows how to hype up any fight.  Nick Diaz bravely stepped in when Dos Santos broke his foot a few weeks back.  It did not stop neither the Irishman’s banter nor the line dropping from the initial -320 opening.  Find out the pulse of these fights as the PPV is finally here tonight on 3/5.

UFC 196 Free Picks : Mrs. Buster Douglas?

Rousey’s lose against Holly Holm  sparked comparisons with Tyson losing to Buster Douglas decades ago.  While it did not go to that level of upset, Holm can learn from Douglas.  Buster reveled in his upset and lost his very next fight.  The key for the Holm fight’s of the future is getting her on the ground.  100 percent defense in the prevention of take downs translates that no one has done this so far.  No one in the company will beat Holly Holm just in the vertical game.  This facet is too strong for anyone on the current roster to contend with.  So you have to project whether someone who could not formulate against the Rousey armbar can now get Holm on the ground.  Some as of yesterday bit on this apple as the opener of -320 on Holm has gone down to -288.  Tate has the slight wagering momentum coming into this one.

No Lack of Motivation

No belt will be on the line here as Conor is going up from 145 to the 170 range in this one.  He insists that this is his normal walking around weight in every day life.  He gets Nick Diaz as an opponent instead of Dos Anjos.  McGregor might be too focused in the verbal department as Diaz represents an oddity for him.  Nick has height and length against him.  Mr. Diaz just likes to fight.  Forget about being super ripped or being a role model, Nick just likes to brawl.  The factors in this one are Nick’s pudginess and Conor’s precision power.  Nick can absorb random blows but Conor has been on point in the placement of the punches.  Diaz’s main advantage will be on the ground but he must get him there fast.  Lack of conditioning will be the factor that really makes this fight not even close.

A torrent of money has come in on a chalk heavy moneyline.  Pounding this by the sharps and early money is all you need to know.  -320 on Conor is near the -500 mark now.  Few give Diaz a chance nor should you.  Instead of wagering a straight bet on McGregor, add him to your other selections for the weekend and make parlays.  Do this counters some of the vigs for a line that still has value in it.  Good fortune this evening and we will see you later today here at HRWager.