UFC 196 Tip : Holm vs Tate 3/5

• 27 February 2016

A stagnant pair of lines can be exploited in our UFC 196 Tip.  Newly crowned women’s champ Holly Holm now gets to face one of the fewer women to get Rousey past the first round in Miesha Tate.  This is all about styles and exploits.  Using this train of thought, the two lines for this fight in ML winner and over/under in rounds are not harmonious.  Which way will HRWager implore you to utilize this imbalance?

UFC 196 Tip : Holm on the Ground

Rousey had it right but lacked the sophistication to implement her plan.  Get Holm off her feet.  Few are going to outstrike Holly in the vertical position.  Problem is that her footwork is pretty quality due to her elite women’s boxing status.  The bull in the china shop approach does not work.  Instead, it involves a level of finesse that Tate does have.  If the challengers camp puts in extreme time pouring over tape, there are ways to get any fighter on the ground.  Over the course of her MMA career, Holm has bee horizontal less than a minute.

 

Tate is a wrestler

It was odd to see Holm bully Rousey on the odd occasions that she clinched.  Rhonda had to resort to almost tripping Holm in vain hopes of getting the game on the ground.  Tate has the technical ability to get her on the ground even in clutch situations.  Expect Holly to be going backward a lot in this one trying to thwart the advances.  However, blind fury will not work here.  Expect Tate to be patient for two reasons.  One she has to be able to go the distance even in a loss to prove that she is at least entertaining fodder in championship fights.  Two is that the ground game is slow.  She has submission skill but it is not the lightning variety like Rousey.  It will be the exertion of force that is Tate’s best weapon here.

Look for the champ to be unable to dictate pace.  THis is why the line is only -360/+300 on Holm.  Tate at +300 is not worth the risk to reward.  Instead, look at eating the chalk on the totals.  2 1/2 round -200/+170. Technical and dry fight that is dirty on the ground.  Over 2 1/2 rounds -200 for this. Good fortune next week and we will see you tomorrow here at HRWager.